Religion and the State in Azerbaijan
It would seem to me that Azerbaijan is at the crossroads of many different cultural plates(if one subscribes to Samuel Huntington), which means that many religions would be vying for representation among the population and within the state. According to International Crisis Group, which recently released a report on religious repression in Azerbaijan:
After 1991 Azerbaijan became a target of religious movements vying for influence. Missionaries and charities from Iran, the Middle East and Turkey, as well as individuals from Russia’s north Caucasus came to proselytize. Some reportedly were linked with militant Islamist networks, including al-Qaeda. Many were expelled, and only Turkish groups now continue to work relatively unhindered by the state.
They conclude that a lot of the government actions are part of a desire to appeal to Western interests, and appear to have militant Islam under control.
Possibly, this risks offending their Muslim-majority population, who would want fair representation in their government and the ability to control their own religious associations. There could be strains on government legitimacy here, even if they were to relax a little bit in the near future.
Could things be ripe for some sort of turmoil in the future? Well, with all of the petrodollars coming into the nation it would not be unreasonable to expect some instability in the next few years.
